HBOS’s exposure to the mortgage market remains its biggest Achilles’ heel

HBOS’s exposure to the mortgage market remains its biggest Achilles’ heel. However, that’s not because its competitive position is under threat, but because of the dangers of a pronounced fall off in the property market. In the event of a housing market crash, HBOS would undoubtedly survive, but it would also be quite seriously hurt. Again, few pundits believe there will be a crash, notwithstanding the latest scare survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. Yet there plainly will be some kind of a deterioration in consumer credit conditions.The retail credit cycle hasn’t been abolished Of that we can be certain.

There’s no reason why HBOS shouldn’t eventually grow its share of these markets from the current level of 10-12 per cent to perhaps as high as 25 per cent. Mr Crosby couldn’t justify such an acquisition to his shareholders.So what’s the problem? HBOS will enjoy respectable top and bottom-line growth this year, and its longer-term growth prospects in the UK market are much better than anyone else’s. For most rivals, the strategy is the unedifying one of defending UK margins on legacy customer bases so that the proceeds can be invested in overseas expansion.HBOS’s strategy is, by contrast, one of aggressive expansion into the current account, small business lending and long-term savings markets, cutting away at the soft underbelly of the incumbents So far it’s worked a treat. Despite the opportunity for mouth-watering cost cuts well in excess of £1bn a year, the deal would have been earnings dilutive to HBOS.

James Crosby, the chief executive, was forced to pull out of the bidding for Abbey National largely because his own relatively poor stock price couldn’t compete with Banco Santander’s highly rated paper. Ever since it was floated back in the mid 1990s, the Halifax building society as was has been a dullard compared with others, only just managing to keep pace with the stock market as a whole.This is a cause of growing frustration to senior executives, not just because a decent stock market rating is a mark of management success, but also because it limits HBOS’s ability to grow by acquisition. HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland Group are much more highly rated and even Barclays enjoys a higher earnings multiple and a lower dividend yield. The wheels of European economic reform grind exceedingly slowly. It is not clear that the Chancellor’s strictures will make them turn any faster.HBOS frustrationOf the UK’s leading high street banks, only Lloyds TSB has a worse stock market rating that HBOS.

Britain plans to implement these provisions as soon as possible – January next year. Yet according to BMW, the Germans are ignoring them, the French are looking for ways round them, while the Irish have never even heard of them.The overriding impression is that Europe is clogging up the system with confusing, costly and in many cases unnecessary single market laws while at the other extreme wholly failing to enforce rules that might lead to greater competition and some advantage to more efficient producers. This plays well to the Chancellor’s domestic power base, but infuriates many of his Continental counterparts, and is therefore almost certainly counter-productive. Europe is meant to be a free-trade zone, yet national protections still proliferate.Mr Brown plans to air his latest programme for reform at today’s meeting of European finance ministers Whether he’ll be listened to is another matter. Mr Brown’s release of the report, just a day ahead of the meeting, falls into a consistent pattern of anti-European briefing by the Treasury. For cars, this will mean that warranties attract insurance premium tax and VAT.

Furthermore, any business carrying out work under the terms of the warranty will have to be registered with the Financial Service Authority, adding a whole new layer of regulation and cost. He said the split was amicable although he was disappointed by the resignation.Mr Wong joined Standard Chartered from Citigroup in 1997 as head of consumer banking in Hong Kong, and became chief executive of Hong Kong three years later.The London-based bank blamed the job cuts on tough competition in the Hong Kong market, where dozens of banks serve a population of just 6.8 million. Standard Chartered is competing with Citigroup and HSBC in the region.Mr Wong, a well-known and respected figure in Hong Kong’s banking circles, had been leading Standard Chartered’s efforts to find a partner in mainland China. Peter Wong, Standard Chartered’s top executive in Hong Kong, quit yesterday just days after the bank laid off 200 staff there. He will be replaced by his deputy, Peter Sullivan.
Reports said Mr Wong, 52, resigned after disagreements over the job cuts in the Hong Kong consumer banking unit. and currency values are best set in open, competitive exchange markets.”Although the Bush administration has stuck consistently to this formula of words, analysts said the comments were significant coming as Mr Snow prepared to meet his European counterparts.Continental finance ministers, who have seen the main impact of the dollar’s depreciation fall on the euro, have been calling for co-ordinated intervention by central banks to stem the rise in the euro.. It may also corner the Government into committing to a review of the controversial policy..

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